[2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. Convoys of tanks are rolling inhowever slowlyfrom the north, west, and south. according to the Kremlin's official site. Fighting around the town has been ongoing since March 2022, but has been escalating since Jan. 24 when Russia launched a renewed offensive. Over the past decade, the Russian armed forces have greatly improved, especially in the numbers of troops and quality of weapons. [24], Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks near Kreminna on February 28. In total, russia has only 6 A-50Us and 3 outdated A-50s. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are defending in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts but are trying to create conditions that will allow Russian forces to conduct offensives in some unspecified areas of this part of the front. Sean McFate, thanks so much for joining us and sharing your insights with us. The question How outdated is the Russian military? is a bit silly when one considers the acknowledgement made by nearly every MSM of the advancem All contents 2023 The Slate Group LLC. Significant activity in Belarus(ISW assesses that a Russian or Belarusian attack into northern Ukraine in early 2023 is extraordinarily unlikely and has thus restructured this section of the update. Theyve sent in only about two-thirds of the troops and weapons that had been poised on the Ukrainian border. Want to write for Task & Purpose? This is reflected in the Ground Force's preferred ad-hoc fighting formation, the Battalion Tactical Group, which combines infantry and tank companies with an unusually large quantity of artillery. No tolerance of casualties.". [65], Some Russians continue limited resistance to the war in Ukraine. ISW has not observed indicators that Russian forces are preparing to resume prolonged offensive activity in Zaporizhia Oblast or any offensive activity in Kherson Oblast. WebRussian tanks have been outrunning the infantry who can protect them. [20]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [21]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates-2022. And the Russians, mercenaries and the troll factory work hand in hand. Putins invasion has rallied Ukrainian nationalism, stiffened the Wests spine, and sent his own economy into a tailspin. Ukrainian soldiers have killed more than 3,000 Russian troops, according to conservative estimates by American officials. In the fall, after losing swaths of land in Ukraines east, Russia tried to take the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, three hours south from Vuhledar. [60]A prominent Russian milblogger on February 28 amplified a report from a Russian soldier on December 9 that Russia has also fallen behind Ukrainian forces in terms of drone production and drone-operator training. Putin lauded the FSB for its direct participation in the war in non-standard field tasks such as protection of the Russian border and cracking down on terrorist activities, organized crime, corruption, and extremism. A destroyed Russian tank is seen outside of Izyum district of Kharkiv Oblast, And we annihilated them systematically because they had no air defense artillery. WebPutin brags that Russian weapons are 'years, perhaps even decades' ahead of rivals as his army pulls old Soviet-era tanks out of deep storage due to losses in Ukraine Jake Epstein 2022-08-16T13:56:17Z Russia still fields far more numerous forces than European militaries with equivalent defense spending, but not on the scale of the Soviet Union. Should this continue, this may further accelerate an end to the war. [21]US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns stated on February 25 that the CIA is confident that Chinese leadership is considering the provision of lethal equipment to Russia. Pretty outdated. Only 64% of Russian military equipment and machinery is new or recent. It is 82% in Strategic Nuclear Forces, but only 48,3% in th But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. Apoorva Kaul . The invocation of Chechnya and Finland is peculiar as while both conflicts with Russia suggest certain operational and tactical lessons, neither ended victoriously for Russia's opponents. [72]The decision also imposes sanctions on seven Russian humanitarian and social movement organizations involved in various Russian schemes aiming to deport children. Can we corroborate the information? The extension of Russian prosecution efforts and Armenian cooperation are both significant events, though it is noteworthy that Russia and Armenia have an existing extradition treaty. Heightened tensions with Russia have given new life to some enduring myths about Russia's military. Nicholas Slayton MCFATE: I see last century's war happening in this century. Russias military, at 900,000 active duty troops and two million reservists, is eight times the size of Ukraines. Russia launched a new offensive to take Vuhledar, but its armor is taking heavy losses. [39], Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks in western Donetsk Oblast on February 28. Not outdated at all. The avangard (hypersonic glide vehicle) is faster than any other aerial vehicle in the world (with a speed of Mach 20 to27). I [80], Belarusian maneuver elements continue conducting exercises in Belarus. Over the last few weeks, Putin has signaled an urgency for Russia to streamline and update its army's administration procedures and weapons production. Mines have played a key role in the fighting in Ukraine over the past year. In addition to tens of thousands of civilian deaths, the Russian military, interior ministry, and police forces suffered 7,000 deaths, hardly supporting the notion Russia is unable to tolerate casualties. Articles may contain affiliate links which enable us to share in the revenue of any purchases made. In politics and in warfare, the small elite on top doesnt want subordinates to get too creativeif they did, they might take over. [10]Putins address to the FSB similarly aligns the FSB and its traditional domestic law enforcement and counterterrorism role with Russian military efforts in Ukraine in order to frame Russian victory in the war as necessary for Russias domestic security. Its been this way for much of February. And it's puzzling because Putin is a - he's been a leader in modern warfare not in terms of it being morally good, but in, as you said earlier, hybrid war. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. What are you thinking of? Image: AP. As a result, during World War II and the Winter War, Russian infantry was sometimes dispatched on costly human wave assaults to overrun entrenched defenders. Armored forces attempting to take the Ukrainian town of Vuhledar are being decimated by landmines. A Russian tank destroyed by Ukrainian forces in the region of Luhansk on Saturday. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. Ukrainian Polohy Mayor Yuriy Konovalenko reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian force concentration area in the southern part of Polohy, Zaporizhia Oblast, on February 27. Clickhereto see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia's weapons should be modernized, in a rare hint that the Kremlin is acknowledging its military hardware is outdated. And they do the Kremlin's dirty work. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl stated that the US does not assess that Russia will use nuclear weapons during a House Armed Service Committee hearing on American military support for Ukraine on February 28. Thousands who fled Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, arrived at the train station in Lviv, in the west. [25]A Russian milblogger claimed that while Russian forces in Luhansk Oblast still have the initiative, Russian offensive operations in Luhansk Oblast are unsuccessful, supporting ISWs previous assessment that the Russian forces offensive in Luhansk Oblast lacks sufficient reserves to increase the scale or intensity of the offensive. Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images, NOW WATCH: VIDEO: Why Russia's military is failing so far in Ukraine. Or Russia could try to shut down Ukraines banking system, or parts of the power grid, to increase pressure on the civilian population to capitulate. The resistance will continue, especially now that practically every nation in NATO is supplying Ukraine with weapons. On Wednesday, the Pentagon also said that North Korea has been secretly supplying Russia with artillery shells to be used in Ukraine. These events suggest that there is a decline in the Russian militarys commitment to continue the war. Others have reportedly been found knocking on village doors for food or, in one case, asking a local police station for fuel. https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/readovkanews/53701;http https://t.me/ukrbavovna/6824;https://twitter.com/seanders_geo/status/1 https://twitter.com/chris__759/status/1630324113616297984?s=20, https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://t.me/readovkanews/53706, https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931, https://t.me/readovkanews/53706;https://t.me/sashakots/38685. Moscow's inability to gain and hold significant ground in Ukraine, coupled with the destruction of much of its equipment in battle, has forced it to deploy Soviet-era tanks and weapons systems, according to Western intelligence. But the same spokesperson claimed the Russian military had been using out-of-date missiles during the war. "The same applies to weapons, which need constant and uninterrupted upgrades and improvements to remain effective," Putin added. And Prigozhin also owns the Internet Research Agency - you know, the troll factory. NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. Many of them are from Spetsnaz, which is Russian special forces, and they're very tough. This is hard to judge. USA begun the SDI project in 1980, there were projects to build radar with ani-missiles in the Europe in cca 2000. USA has s There are reasons to believe that the strength of the Russian armed forces has been overestimated. They are mercenaries. Without achieving and sustaining momentum, the Russian forces got So, as might be expected, lots of Russian tanks are getting ambushed. [29], Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Donetsk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas), Russian forces continued ground attacks near Bakhmut and made tactical gains within Bakhmut on February 28. [2]The apparent uptick in fallacious biochemical and nuclear false flag warnings accompanies a concerted Russian false flag information operation accusing Ukraine of preparing for an invasion of Russian-occupied Transnistria, Moldova. Have they proved reliable in the past? While the shortcomings of Russia's one-year conscripts are real, they now constitute a large minority, not the majority of Russia's military. [40]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian naval infantry elements are fighting towards Vuhledar from the Mykliske dacha area and within Vuhledar itself, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of Russian troops within Vuhledar. [10]https://isw.pub/UkrWar013123;https://isw.pub/UkrWar121322; [11]https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-russia-open-ukraine-talks-w [12]https://tassdot com/politics/1582547, [14]https://tassdot com/politics/1582471, [15]https://isw.pub/UkrWar120222;https://www.middot ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1790809/;https://middot ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/, [16]https://www.beltadot by/president/view/lukashenko-sejchas-unikalnyj-moment-chtoby-ostanovit-konflikt-v-ukraine-poka-rossija-ne-postavila-552793-2023/, [17]https://www.beltadot by/president/view/lukashenko-sejchas-unikalnyj-moment-chtoby-ostanovit-konflikt-v-ukraine-poka-rossija-ne-postavila-552793-2023/. Friedman, a military historian and tactician, went further: This isnt a good army executing a bad plan. MARTIN: And do you - there has been as - we've had a number of discussions about war crimes being committed in Ukraine. Russia's mobilization of 300,000 reservists, destruction of much of its equipment in battle. [1] The Russian MoD relatedly claimed on February 19 that Ukrainian officials are planning false-flag attacks at hazardous radiation facilities in Ukraine to accuse Russian forces of indiscriminately striking such sites. Skeptics like to point out Russia's gross-domestic product is in the same ballpark as Italy's. I mean, I'm thinking of disinformation tactics. The result: Militaries in Europe that once feared Russia say they are not as intimidated by Russian ground forces as they were in the past. In one notorious incident early in the war, a 40-mile (64-kilometer) convoy of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and towed artillery became stalled 19 miles (30 km) That's what they're MARTIN: That's what their modus operandi - that is how they operate. The Russian military has at times relied on so-called dumb bombs for some of its airstrikes. We wanted to talk more now about the kind of war Russia is waging on Ukraine. #Ukraine #Vuhledar #Donetsk pic.twitter.com/bIqWpLpcnZ. ISW has previously reported on the correlation between Russian information operations and battlefield realities, particularly when Russian forces are failing to take significant ground in offensive operations in Ukraine. Its a little bit early to draw any definitive lessons learned, he added. However, some of their age-old weaknesses havent been fixed at all. Russia is believed to have lost almost 1,000 tanks in its war with Ukraine, a senior US defense official said Thursday. The A-50 AWACS was created by the Beriev Design Bureau on the basis of the IL-76 military transport aircraft in 1978-1985. Pretty outdated. General Herems colleague and the air force chief, Brig. They need to be escorted by infantry troops alongside or by combat planes from above, to avoid getting ambushed. Old and outdated equipment has given way to new and sophisticated weapons The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions in the Avdiivka area near Kamianka; on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske; Krasnohorivka, and Nevelske; and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka and Pervomaiske. [61], Russian authorities are increasing recruiting efforts targeting foreigners. Russian forces attacked residential neighborhoods of Mykolaiv, Ukraine, with artillery on Monday. "My call for a Ukraine national militia of quick-trained volunteers to attack stopped Russian columns opportunistically (the Finnish model) is misrepresented as a call for an endless guerilla war After losing a few soldiers the Russians will withdraw (as in Chechnya). What we consider before using anonymous sources. A Ukrainian official reported that Russian forces are vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast and may be preparing to withdraw from positions closer to the Dnipro River on the east (left) bank in Kherson Oblast. Michael Kofman, a military analyst at CNA, an Arlington, Virginiabased think tank, who has been following the battle closely, tweeted late Sunday afternoon, Its taken me a while to figure out what [the Russian military is] trying to do, because it looks so ridiculous and incompetent. B.A. These factors still leave Russia at a deficit compared to US spending, but a much smaller one than decontextualized budget figures imply. Why have the Russians performed so poorly in the early days of the war? It added: "Due to the lack of high-precision weapons, The result is that Ukraine, using Javelin anti-tank missiles, has stalled the convoy headed for Kyiv by blowing up tank after tank. Russian tank units, for instance, have deployed with too few soldiers to fire and protect the tanks, officials said. 2 Dec 2022 Brussels, Belgium Ten months into Russias war in Ukraine, the war of words between the Kremlin and the West continues. [64]https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1630478324215455745;https://t.me [65]https://t.me/grey_zone/17471;https://t.me/concordgroup_official/528; [66]https://www.fontanka dot ru/2023/02/27/72090578/; https://t.me/astrapress/21942. This weakness might not matter so much if an army makes rapid progress at the start of its offensive. The latest: Ukraines air defenses thwarted a number of Russian missiles fired at targets across the country on Thursday. WebAnswer (1 of 21): Yes. This is just a strong supposition. By By clicking Sign up, you agree to receive marketing emails from Insider We called Sean McFate to try to understand what this might mean. [42]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported that Russian forces have transferred between 20,000 and 25,000 personnel from Mariupol Raion, Donetsk Oblast, to unspecified areas of the front, although Russian forces likely transferred most of these personnel to areas of active offensive operations elsewhere in Donetsk Oblast. Whats their motivation for telling us? The reporter and at least one editor know the identity of the source. Sign up for notifications from Insider! The Tu-22M3 bomber was put down away [3]Russian President Vladimir Putin also notably re-introduced nuclear rhetoric into the Russian information space during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 21 when he announced Russias intent to suspend participation in START. [64]Prigozhin praised the soldiers and stated that he has already asked Russian military authorities to transfer them to a Wagner subgroup. In addition, the Russian senior officers have proved so far to be risk-averse, the officials said. Access your favorite topics in a personalized feed while you're on the go. [18]The Kremlin may be reintroducing the negotiations information operation to reduce the effectiveness of future Ukrainian counteroffensives by delaying the provision of essential Western aid and to seek to gain concessions before potential further setbacks in Ukraine. It's a rare acknowledgment of the flaws in the Russian military's capabilities revealed by the war. In 2022, Moscow allocated $61.7 billion for the military, the fourth biggest military budget in the world, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). [26]Geolocated footage published on February 27 showed two Russian tanks firing at Ukrainian positions west of Chervonopopivka (5km north of Kreminna) indicating limited Russian advances. https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0dDf2w34VWwwcuYqnxSQ https://t.me/wargonzo/11149;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgroun https://t.me/btr80/5171;https://twitter.com/auditor_ya/status/16305795 https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1630263342756515840, https://t.me/boris_rozhin/79250;https://t.me/sashakots/38680. Even in victorious campaigns in 1943-1945, it was typical for the Red Army to suffer higher casualties than its defeated foes. It's time to retire outdated stereotypes about the Russian military: As the possibility of an escalated Russian war in Ukraine looms larger and larger, a noted strategist and historian took to social media to argue Moscow's forces could be handily repelled by little hit-and-run warfare by Ukrainian civilians-at-arms. [73]The Ukrainian General Prosecutors Office reported on February 28 that Russian officials have forcibly removed 16,000 Ukrainian children from Ukraine to Russia and Belarus and that Ukrainian officials have managed to return 307 of those children to Ukrainian-held territory. The tweet claims the tank was abandoned in good condition and fully-loaded. Another old pattern repeating itself in Ukraine is the Russian armys reliance on heavy guns. Every day, Pentagon officials caution that Russias military will soon correct its mistakes, perhaps shutting off communications across the country, cutting off Mr. Zelensky from his commanders. It's unlikely. Many of the more than 150,000 largely conscripted troops that Moscow has deployed across Ukraine have been bogged down north of Kyiv, the capital. Last modified on Mon 27 Feb 2023 15.47 EST. https://t.me/RVvoenkor/39332;https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/16306 https://www.facebook.com/OperationalCommandSouth/posts/pfbid0QKZqHXVCM4m https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/3344;https://t.me/Yevtushenko_E/2691 https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32292266.html;https://www.themoscowtimesdot. [79]Neither Belarusian nor Russian authorities have commented on the reported attack as of this publication. MARTIN: So one reason I think that Russian tactics stand out is that, in recent years, we have really associated the Russians with so-called hybrid war - right? [78]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass [79]https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, [80]https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1630535360735334400;https://tw https://twitter.com/GianlucaMezzo/status/1630577307260690435?s=20, https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1630453726304518144, Donetsk Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kharkiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Zaporizhia Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft February 28, 2023.png, Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 28, 2023.pdf, Russian Main EffortEastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts), Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast, Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts. So I think we - you know, and the laws of war will once again prove rather feckless in changing his decision to do that. [50], Russian forces continued routine fire west of Hulyaipole and in Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts. In theory, tanks and infantry companies in a BTG screen the artillery from counterattacks and mop up the survivors after the bombardment. Along with its own Soviet-era mines, Ukraine has a supply of American remote anti-armor mine systems, which the United States provided approximately 6,000 of in late 2022. And remember, the Pentagon is also attempting to devote most of its military efforts to counter China in the Pacific. According to russian sources, the cost of one modified A-50U filled with valuable electronics is close to $330 million. Russian battlefield defeats, and mounting casualties, also have an impact. 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